From experts to Andrew Berry, many have questioned Shedeur Sanders and his future with the Browns. New stats are making the case worse for the QB.

Sanders had a QBR of 18.9 this season, the lowest single-season QBR in Cleveland Browns history for a quarterback with at least six starts. But it gets worse when we look into more advanced metrics.

His first 7 stars sit at 167th out of 184 NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per dropback since 2000. The rookie ranks 9th among 10 Browns quarterbacks with at least seven starts in that span. Only Brady Quinn is ahead of him. His EPA is -0.21. What is that?

The Athletics defines EPA as "the best tool for measuring quarterback success. It is not a team stat, as some have argued, any more than rushing yards or passing yards are team stats...EPA adjusts for all circumstances, such as time and score, down and distance, field position, etc."

Now, one can say Sanders is a rookie, and he will improve. Very much true, but what's also true is the fact that among quarterbacks with an EPA of -0.18 or lower (Sanders’ range), only Jared Goff and Alex Smith (about 8%) went on to have productive careers.

Why Are His Stats So Low?

It comes down to three things: early-down interceptions, late-down sacks, and too many empty yards. The EPA comes down on the QBs or throwing interceptions on first and second downs because that is when quarterbacks don’t need to force things.

8 of Sanders' 9 interceptions this season have come on first or second down. That’s a triple word score worth of demerits in EPA calculations. Add to that the late-down sacks. Sanders has been sacked on 15% of his third and fourth-down plays.

This places him 164th out of 184 quarterbacks in their first seven career starts. And once again, the EPA is strict with late down sacks because those are moments that can push teams out of field goal range, prevent going for it on fourth down, or cause a turnover on downs.

Sanders has a 65% completion success rate. This ranks him 179th out of 184 quarterbacks in their first seven career starts. Plus, it’s the lowest rate for any Browns quarterback in the past 25 years.

While OL was a problem for the team, so was Sanders keeping the ball. The average time he took to throw the ball this season was 3.19 seconds. That is the fourth-longest in a single season since 2000. Though not everything is bad about the rookie.

Shedeur Sanders Is Accurate

That is one statistic that has favored the former Colorado QB. He ranks at number 11 in off-target rate among 46 QBs to make their first seven starts since 2019. He ranked ahead of Drake Maye (16th) and Justin Herbert (28th). He is also ahead of many big names in true dropbacks.

Shedeur Sanders averages 7.6 yards per attempt on standard dropbacks from the pocket, ranking 7th among 46 quarterbacks. He is ahead of Joe Burrow (9th) and Jalen Hurts (11th). He’s also been a strong runner on scrambles, ranking 22nd out of 91 quarterbacks in their first seven starts since 2006.

There as well, he beats the big names like Jayden Daniels (23rd), Josh Allen (31st), and Lamar Jackson (53rd). All of this dopes ingite a hope that he will get better once he has better protection and better weapons around him. But the question is: how much and how quickly?

Written by

Reyansh Dubey

Edited by

Oajaswini Prabhu