January 18, 2025: Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud 7 looks to pass as Kansas City Chiefs safety Justin Reid 20 pressures during an NFL, American Football Herren, USA AFC Divisional game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. /CSM Kansas City United States of America - ZUMAc04_ 20250118_zma_c04_746 Copyright: xDavidxSmithx

Dec 6, 2025, 2:30 PM CUT

NFL Playoff Projections: Key Matches That Could Play a Major Role This Week

The Dallas Cowboys winning streak of 3 games came to an end when they lost 30-44 to the Lions in Week 14. With that their 2025 NFL playoff chances are almost gone at 8%. The race is going to get interesting with each division having at least two teams with a record over .500 other than the AFC north. Take a look at the games that might decide a lot this week.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts fell down real quick after starting the season with a 7-1 record and now sit at the top of the division with the Jaguars tied at 8-4. Their playoff chances are 72% which will fall to 55% if they lose this game. They wouldn’t want that with a brutal stretch of Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans in the coming weeks.

A loss won’t harm the Jaguars that much because their 84% playoff chances will fall to only 75%. Though they would love the win because that would seal the deal for them, taking the chances to 97%.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

The Bears lead the NFC with a 9-3 record, and a win over the Packers will make sure they stay there. Moreover, their playoff chances would jump from 74% to 90%.

The Packers follow the Bears in the NFC leaderboard, and with only 4 games after this, they would love to take this game home. It would also boost their NFL playoff chances from 88% to 94%.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

When the Chiefs lost to the Cowboys in the Thanksgiving game, Patrick Mahomes took a stern tone and said that they now have to win all games. And thus, a lot is at stake in this game for him and the Chiefs. Their playoff chances are already grim at 33%, a loss would send them down to 11%, basically eliminated, and lead to the first season for Mahomes where he did not enter the NFL playoffs. A win would keep the hopes alive at 50%.

For the Texans, on the flip side, this win would extend their winning streak to 5-0. It would also strengthen their position in the AFC South race and the wild-card race. A loss would hurt them in the Wild Card and drop them two wins behind the Jaguars and Colts. Their playoff chances will come down to 45% from 59%. A win will take it to 82%.

Who are you supporting? Let us know in the comments.

Written by

Reyansh Dubey

Edited by

Joyita Das